Estée Lauder shares rise 34% but valuation and macro risks advise caution.

Estée Lauder's stock has gained 34% in the past year, driven by margin improvements from PRGP restructuring and rebounds in China and luxury segments. However, the company's heavy reliance on Asian travel spending exposes it to risks from energy price shocks and broader economic uncertainties. Despite expected normalized earnings per share of around $3.75 by 2028, the current valuation at about 23 times earnings is considered stretched, leading to a cautious stance on the stock.