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Vistra's Q3 EBITDA jumps 50%, shares fall 25% YTD amid political concerns seen as overblown

Company Fundamentals
07 Nov 2026, 14:00 WIB
Seeking Alpha
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Bullish
Vistra's Q3 EBITDA jumps 50%, shares fall 25% YTD amid political concerns seen as overblown

Vistra reported a strong Q3 with adjusted EBITDA up 50% to $2.38 billion and raised its 2026 earnings guidance to $7.1-$7.5 billion. Despite solid fundamentals and 98% of its 2027 electricity generation hedged, Vistra's shares have dropped 25% year-to-date and fell nearly 14% after Democrats won key governorships. The political risk is considered overstated and unlikely to significantly affect the company soon. Vistra trades at a discount compared to peers, with an attractive free cash flow yield of about 11%.

Vistra's market cap stands at $42.31 billion as of November 7, 2026, 19:11 WIB, with a dividend yield of 0.74%. On Pluang, the stock price is USD 124.80, showing a strong 1-day gain of 10.55%, while trading volume reached 12,501,439 shares. This trading activity reflects notable investor interest shortly after the company's positive Q3 report and raised earnings guidance.

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