Markets doubt quick Strait of Hormuz reopening, embracing 'NACHO' trade amid prolonged disruption fears.

Traders are increasingly skeptical about a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coining the 'NACHO' trade—'Not A Chance Hormuz Opens'—to reflect this sentiment. Despite ceasefire talks and occasional easing, oil prices remain high, with Brent crude above $100 per barrel and shipping insurance premiums significantly elevated, signaling fears of a long-term disruption. This shift marks a change from viewing the crisis as temporary volatility to a structural macro risk, impacting oil, shipping, inflation hedges, and rates markets. While stock markets remain resilient, analysts warn that prolonged closure could cause persistent inflation shocks and increase recession risks globally.