S&P 500 hits new highs amid overbought signals and rising risks from war and market conditions

The S&P 500 has rallied about 14% since late March, reaching a new high near 7,125, but technical indicators like the 14-day relative strength index suggest the market is overbought. Despite a seemingly low Volatility Index, risks are mounting due to collapsing market breadth, stretched investor positioning, a historically weak seasonal period, political uncertainties, and ongoing war impacts. These factors collectively raise the risk of a market correction in the near term.