Nebius Group's Q1 2026 cash flow raises funding concerns despite bullish outlook

Nebius Group's operating cash flow for FY25 was $401.9M, including $982.5M from customer advances, highlighting funding challenges for its aggressive expansion. Management expects these contract-related cash flows to cover about 60% of 2026 capital expenditures, estimated at $10.8B based on midpoint guidance. While Q1 and FY26 exit annual recurring revenue (ARR) remain important, the company's ability to convert cash flow will be crucial to sustaining growth. Despite these concerns and broader U.S. data center delays, the analyst remains bullish on Nebius stock, monitoring risks closely.