Markets stay strong despite Middle East tensions and high oil prices; cautious stance advised during earnings season.

Despite rising tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices, equity markets remain resilient as investors focus on strong Q1 earnings and upward revisions. Elevated oil prices are expected to continue through the end of the year, which could increase input costs and pressure consumer spending and GDP growth in the coming months. Real personal spending growth is weakening, with higher-income consumers now driving retail sales, making the economy more vulnerable to shocks. The investment leader advises de-risking during earnings season, anticipating a possible market pullback after earnings reports that may present buying opportunities if energy costs ease.