Prediction markets surge in popularity, rivaling high-risk leveraged products in monthly volume.

Prediction markets have rapidly grown in popularity among retail investors since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with monthly trading volumes now comparable to high-risk leveraged exchange-traded products. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their total notional volume jump from under $5 billion to over $24 billion within a year, driven largely by non-economic event contracts such as sports. Despite this growth, prediction markets still lag behind flagship retail products like zero-day to expiration (0DTE) options on the S&P 500, which saw nearly $57 trillion traded in March. Experts believe prediction markets appeal to younger generations due to their accessibility and binary outcomes, potentially serving as an entry point to more complex equity trading.