The recent surge in S&P 500 earnings is mainly due to four key forces: capital expenditure-driven profits in semiconductor and equipment sectors, accounting mismatches, scarcity pricing, and the contrasting impacts of AI-related companies. Specifically, AI labs' losses are excluded from the index, while hyperscale companies' profits are included. Additionally, elevated oil and refining margins caused by geopolitical disruptions are seen as temporary and expected to normalize. These factors collectively boost earnings, especially in tech and AI sectors, influencing market dynamics going forward.
The projected 27% earnings growth for the S&P 500 is largely illusory, as it stems from internal money transfers, inflation, and debt-financed investments rather than genuine profit expansion. Inflation alone may contribute 4%–5% of this growth, with...
Equity markets, including SPY, are expected to experience increased volatility in July due to concerns over a potential Federal Reserve rate hike. Key upcoming events such as the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), testimony from Fed Chair Warsh, and th...
The median company in the S&P 500 is currently about 10% overvalued compared to its 11-year average, with energy sectors showing the best value and quality scores. Real estate and healthcare sectors appear undervalued by around 16%. Market breadth ha...
The upcoming June labor market report is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm job creation to 114,000 from 172,000 in May, signaling slight weakening in the US labor market. Despite this, the data is not anticipated to be weak enough to change the...
As of June 29, 2026, six of nine major global indexes show positive gains for the year. Japan's Nikkei 225 leads with a 37.8% increase, followed by Canada's TSX (+9.8%) and the U.S. S&P 500 (+8.1%). In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng has fallen 11.5%...
