Bitcoin climbs back above $80,000 driven by ETF inflows and leverage, but doubts remain on sustained breakout.

Bitcoin has risen above $80,000, fueled mainly by strong inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and increased leveraged long positions rather than broad spot buying. On-chain data reveals that April's rally was driven by perpetual futures demand while spot demand contracted, indicating a fragile price increase prone to reversal. Prediction markets assign a 56% chance of reaching $85,000 this month but only a 23% chance of hitting $90,000, reflecting cautious trader sentiment. This suggests the rally depends heavily on continued inflows and leverage, making it vulnerable to sharp reversals if these factors wane.