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Bitcoin sees more extreme price swings in 2026 despite lower overall volatility, challenging risk models.

Market News
10 Oct 2026
Coindesk
View Source
Neutral
Bitcoin sees more extreme price swings in 2026 despite lower overall volatility, challenging risk models.

In 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 days with price moves exceeding three standard deviations, surpassing the eight such days in 2018, even though its annualized volatility has dropped from 84% to about 46%. This means Bitcoin still faces frequent extreme price swings despite calmer average daily movements, posing challenges for traditional risk models like value-at-risk that may underestimate potential losses. Factors such as macroeconomic shocks and crowded derivatives trades contribute to these sudden jolts, but improved market liquidity and institutional participation help absorb the shocks. Investors are advised to consider tail risk measures beyond standard volatility to better manage Bitcoin's unpredictable price behavior going forward.

Bitcoin trades at Rp1.477.714.612 on Pluang as of Oct 10, 2026, 13:01 WIB, showing a modest 0.45% increase in the last day. The platform records a strong buying interest with 70% of orders favoring purchases. Typical Bitcoin holders on Pluang maintain their positions for about 111 days, reflecting a medium-term investment horizon amid ongoing market volatility.

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