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Bitcoin futures yields fall below U.S. Treasuries, signaling market maturity and shrinking arbitrage.

Market News
03 Aug 2026
Coindesk
View Source
Bearish
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Bitcoin futures carry trade, which once yielded over 20% during the 2021 bull market, has declined sharply and now returns just 3%, less than the 3.8% average yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries since February 2026. This decline reflects shrinking arbitrage opportunities and a maturing market, as the basis between futures and spot prices has been lower than Treasury yields for over five months. The reduced incentive to trade futures has led to a significant drop in bitcoin futures volumes, from $1.47 trillion in February to $880 million in July. While this signals a slowdown in trading activity, it also indicates improved market efficiency with tighter spreads and easier hedging.

More News (BTC)

Bitcoin and ether dip as $114M Coldcard hack shakes crypto confidence

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