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PBF Energy seen as top refining pick with 50% upside amid underestimated refining margins.

Analyst Insights
20 Oct 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Bullish
PBF Energy seen as top refining pick with 50% upside amid underestimated refining margins.

PBF Energy is highlighted as a top pick in the refining sector, trading at a significant discount compared to peers despite similar assumptions about refining margins. The consensus estimates are considered too conservative, as they underestimate the ongoing high refining margins driven by geopolitical disruptions like the Russian refining export ban. The analyst projects a 2027 price target of $171 for PBF, implying a potential 50% upside even if margins normalize, along with 10% annual capital returns. PBF is also viewed as a strong hedge against risks from AI trends and macroeconomic uncertainties, offering more upside potential than downside risk.

PBF Energy has a market cap of $9.63 billion and a dividend yield of 1.35% as of Oct 20, 2026, 20:51 WIB. The stock trades at $80.83 on Pluang with a slight 0.53% decline over the past day, while all Pluang order activity is currently on the buy side. This data provides a snapshot of investor interest and valuation metrics alongside the article's discussion of PBF's potential upside and strategic positioning.

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