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Prediction markets give Bitcoin only a 2% chance to hit $200,000 in 2026, a record low.

Market News
10 Oct 2026
Crypto Briefing
View Source
Neutral
Prediction markets give Bitcoin only a 2% chance to hit $200,000 in 2026, a record low.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket now assign just a 2% probability that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by January 1, 2027, marking a record low for such contracts. Currently trading around $82,000 to $84,000, Bitcoin would need to more than double in price to hit this milestone. Traders are favoring smaller price targets, with a 63% chance for Bitcoin to hit $90,000 and 28% for $100,000. The decline in odds has been gradual, reflecting a steady cooling of expectations rather than panic selling.

Bitcoin price predictions show a 2% chance of reaching $200,000 by 2027. For readers following cryptocurrency markets, here is Pluang's snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026 13:51 WIB: out of 50 major cryptocurrencies, 32 rose and 17 fell today. Notable movers include ADA at Rp4.502 (+5.11%), FIL at Rp20.657 (+4.94%), and CAKE at Rp40.391 (+4.81%).

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