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Bitcoin outlook hinges on Fed policy, inflation, and ETF demand for Q4 gains

Market News
21 Oct 2026
Tokenpost
View Source
Bullish
Bitcoin outlook hinges on Fed policy, inflation, and ETF demand for Q4 gains

Nexo's October 21 outlook highlights the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting, inflation rates, and long-term Treasury yields as key factors influencing Bitcoin's performance in the fourth quarter. Bitcoin rose 42.7% in Q3 after three quarters of decline, with September's CPI showing a 3.7% annual increase. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points in mid-September, and long-term Treasury yields have fluctuated slightly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.65 billion in net inflows in September, supporting market demand. Nexo's positive scenario assumes stable Fed rates, steady long-term yields, and resumed ETF inflows, while hotter inflation or further rate hikes could pose downside risks. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, with the rate decision expected on October 28.

Bitcoin's market cap on Pluang stands at Rp30.436,16 trillion as of October 22, 2026, 09:21 WIB, with a 24-hour trading volume of Rp551,24 trillion. The price is relatively stable, showing a slight increase of 0.10% to Rp1.490.590.699. This steady trading activity and market size provide a backdrop to the factors highlighted by Nexo, such as the Federal Reserve's policy meeting and Treasury yields, which could influence Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming quarter.

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