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Kalshi traders give bitcoin just 19% odds to hit $100K before 2027 amid market caution.

Market News
22 Jun 2026
Bitcoin
View Source
Bearish
pluang ai news

Prediction market Kalshi shows traders assigning only a 19% to 22% chance that bitcoin will surpass $100,000 before January 2027, with over $10 million wagered on timing contracts. Bitcoin is down about 27% year-to-date in 2026 and trades near $64,600, roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak. The market also prices a 57% chance bitcoin falls below $50,000 before the end of 2026, reflecting bearish sentiment driven by ETF flow fatigue, macroeconomic uncertainty, and lack of strong catalysts. Analysts remain divided, but Kalshi's real-money bets suggest cautious expectations for bitcoin's near-term recovery.

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