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Bitcoin's traditional 4-year halving cycle breaks as ETFs and institutional demand reshape price dynamics.

Market News
21 May 2026, 17:00 WIB
Crypto news
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Neutral
Bitcoin's traditional 4-year halving cycle breaks as ETFs and institutional demand reshape price dynamics.

Bitcoin's long-standing four-year halving cycle, which guided investor behavior for over a decade, has visibly broken in 2025-2026. The traditional pattern of price peaks 12-18 months post-halving no longer holds due to the overwhelming influence of institutional flows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, macroeconomic factors, and corporate treasury buying. These forces have replaced the supply shock effect of halving as the main price drivers, making the old cycle unreliable. Analysts are divided: some see the cycle as dead with a new, more stable regime emerging, while others believe it has merely stretched. Going forward, investors must monitor ETF flows, Federal Reserve policies, corporate buying, and regulation rather than rely on the halving clock alone, marking a maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class.

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