The US government now spends about $5.5 billion more daily than it collects, resulting in a $1.992 trillion deficit for fiscal 2026. Over the past decade, the national debt has more than doubled from $19.8 trillion to over $40 trillion, reaching 121.2% of GDP. Rising debt increases interest payments, which the government borrows to cover, pushing bond yields higher and causing losses in long-term bond funds. Experts warn yields could rise further, posing risks for retirees holding long-dated bonds, while short-term bonds remain more stable. Investors should watch Treasury auction demand, deficit reports, and bond yield trends closely.
As of Oct 21, 2026 22:41 WIB, long-term US Treasury bonds like TLT trade at USD 80.21, closer to their 52-week low of USD 77.11 than the high of USD 92.06, reflecting cautious sentiment amid rising national debt concerns. In contrast, shorter-term bonds such as SHY remain near their 52-week high at USD 81.31 versus a low of USD 81.05, showing more stability. Meanwhile, IEF, representing mid-term bonds, sits at USD 90.28, also nearer to its low of USD 88.92 than the high of USD 97.99, highlighting a preference for shorter maturities as debt worries persist on Pluang.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has declined about 5% in 2026, pressured by rising real yields and uncertainty rather than inflation fears. The term premium on long-term Treasuries is at its highest since 2010, suggesting current prices ...
Bank of America forecasts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its October 28 meeting, contrasting with market expectations that give the hike only a 20% chance. The bank cites rising inflation, particularly core PCE inflation, as justifi...
Three ETFs—EDV, TLT, and VGLT—hold long-term U.S. Treasury bonds but differ significantly in price volatility and losses over five years. EDV, with the longest duration, experienced the largest drop of 48.45%, while TLT and VGLT fell less, at 33.99% ...
Last week, the semiconductor ETF SMH closed down for its longest streak in 25 years, signaling potential broader market weakness. Despite this, bond prices (TLT) rose, possibly indicating a temporary bottom as earnings season begins. Inflation report...
The US federal government recorded a historic $1.36 trillion in interest payments on the national debt for fiscal year 2026, with net interest to outside holders at $1.1 trillion, or 3.4% of GDP. Despite this record debt-service cost and a $1.99 tril...
