The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has declined about 5% in 2026, pressured by rising real yields and uncertainty rather than inflation fears. The term premium on long-term Treasuries is at its highest since 2010, suggesting current prices may be unsustainable. A key upcoming event is the November 4 Treasury refunding, which could trigger a price reversal if coupon sizes remain stable and buybacks increase, similar to patterns seen earlier in 2023. Risks to this outlook include a hawkish Federal Reserve, broader inflation beyond energy, unexpected supply issues at the refunding, or significant Japanese selling of long-term Treasuries if the yen weakens further.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) trades at USD 80.01 on Pluang as of Oct 21, 2026, 16:02 WIB, down slightly by 0.15% for the day. Despite the ETF's 5% decline in 2026 noted in the article, current Pluang data shows a more modest daily drop. Investor sentiment on Pluang leans toward selling, with 72% of order activity in TLT being sell orders, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of the November 4 Treasury refunding event.
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