Ternium is recommended as a buy with a 14.5% upside to a $65.52 fair value based on discounted cash flow analysis. The completion of its $4 billion Pesqueria project will increase steel production capacity, improve cost competitiveness, and raise EBITDA by 5–10% between 2028 and 2030. Capital expenditures are expected to decline, driving free cash flow yield above 15% and supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 6–7%. Key risks include steel price volatility, Chinese import competition, project delays, and regional economic instability.
Ternium's CapEx reduction and dividend yield projections provide context for basic materials sector trends. For readers following basic materials, here is Pluang's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026 20:22 WIB: Among 38 US stocks, 10 rose and 28 fell. Notable movers include SBSW at USD 10.80 with a 1-day change of -5.35%, AU at USD 99.55 down 4.83%, and HMY at USD 18.96 down 4.34%.
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