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SpaceX IPO may face typical first-year volatility with possible 55% stock drop, warns historical IPO data.

Market News
03 Jun 2026
24/7 Wall Street
View Source
Neutral
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SpaceX plans a public debut with three business segments: Space launches, Starlink broadband, and AI services. Despite 15% revenue growth driven by Starlink, historical data from 30 major IPOs shows an average first-year stock drop of 55%, with many losing value over 12 months. Even strong performers like Arm Holdings experienced sharp drawdowns before gains. SpaceX’s complex structure and losses in AI raise volatility risks, but its dominant connectivity segment and positive space segment EBITDA offer long-term potential. Investors should prepare for significant price swings rather than expect smooth gains.

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