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Polymarket odds for Tesla-SpaceX merger drop despite analyst confidence in deal.

Market News
16 Jul 2026
Proactive Investors - Finance
View Source
Neutral
Polymarket odds for Tesla-SpaceX merger drop despite analyst confidence in deal.

Traders on Polymarket have significantly reduced their bets on a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement this year, with the chance of a deal by September 30 now at 11%, down 28 points, and by December 31 at 24%, down 19 points. This decline contrasts with bullish Wall Street analyst views, such as Wedbush's Dan Ives, who estimates an 80% chance of a tie-up, citing growing connections between the companies. The speculation follows SpaceX's $85.7 billion IPO and its $2.44 trillion valuation with substantial cash reserves. Both companies already share commercial ties, including joint ventures and significant purchases, and Elon Musk's recent moves suggest a strategic consolidation approach. However, Musk acknowledges the complexity of any deal needing to satisfy shareholders of both companies.

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