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Traders cut odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger this year despite analyst confidence.

Market News
16 Jul 2026
Proactive Investors
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Neutral
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Traders on Polymarket have sharply reduced the likelihood of a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement in 2026, with odds dropping to 11% for a deal by September and 24% by December. This decline contrasts with bullish analyst views, such as Wedbush's Dan Ives who estimates an 80% chance of a tie-up, citing growing connections between the companies. SpaceX's recent $85.7 billion IPO and its $100.8 billion cash reserve, along with shared ventures like the Terafab chip facility and Tesla's Megapack battery sales to SpaceX, fuel speculation. Elon Musk's increased Tesla stake and past consolidations, including the integration of xAI and SpaceX, suggest a merger could happen but must satisfy both companies' shareholders.

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