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Prediction markets see 50-50 odds of 50,000 US jobs created in August, below economists' 53,000 estimate.

Market News
01 Sep 2026
CNBC
View Source
Neutral
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Prediction market traders estimate a 50% chance that the US economy created 50,000 jobs in August, slightly below the Dow Jones consensus of 53,000. This cautious outlook follows two months of overestimations by both economists and speculators, with June and July job numbers falling short of expectations. Traders also assign about a 25% chance that the US lost jobs in August or created more than 80,000 jobs, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the official employment report due Friday morning. The data will provide key insights into the strength of the labor market amid recent volatility.

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