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Ternium's steel demand and Pasqueria expansion drive 32% stock upside potential despite execution risks.

Company Fundamentals
17 Sep 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Bullish
Ternium's steel demand and Pasqueria expansion drive 32% stock upside potential despite execution risks.

Ternium shows strong growth with a 5% rise in Mexican steel shipments and a 50% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $717 million in Q2. The company’s major Pasqueria expansion, aimed at USMCA automotive clients, is delayed to early 2027, posing execution and cash flow risks. Despite challenges from Brazil and Argentina demand, Ternium’s valuation model suggests a 32% upside to $75.67 per ADS, contingent on successful project delivery and resolution of a $599 million litigation risk involving Usiminas.

Ternium stock and its outlook come with notable market context from the Basic Materials sector on Pluang. For readers following this sector, here is Pluang's market snapshot as of Sep 18, 2026 07:01 WIB: out of 31 priced US Basic Materials stocks, 25 rose and 6 fell today. Among movers, ArcelorMittal SA (MT) stands out with a price of USD 75.06 and 100% buy order activity, contrasting with Barrick Gold Corp (B) at USD 43.70 with 87% sell orders, and Vale SA (VALE) at USD 14.51 with a more balanced 55% sell to 45% buy split. Typical hold times vary widely, from 35 days for MT to 108 days for VALE.

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