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Polymarket bets 66% chance US forces enter Iran by April 30, 2026 amid rising tensions.

Market News
23 Mar 2026
Proactive Investors - Finance
View Source
Neutral
Polymarket bets 66% chance US forces enter Iran by April 30, 2026 amid rising tensions.

Prediction market Polymarket shows a 66% probability that US military forces will enter Iran by April 30, 2026, with the odds rising sharply in recent weeks due to escalating US-Iran tensions. The chance of entry by March 31 is lower at 24%, but increases significantly over the year, reaching 79% by December 2026. This reflects growing market concern about the potential for a US ground incursion into Iranian territory within the year. Polymarket defines entry as active US military personnel physically entering Iran for operational purposes, excluding incidents like pilots shot down over the country.

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