Carlyle Group shares drop 28% YTD but offer 19%-29% annual return potential by 2029

Carlyle Group's shares have fallen 28% year-to-date, underperforming peers like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR. Despite this, the company expects 15% annual growth in fee-related and distributable earnings, supported by stable income streams and a strong balance sheet. Nearly 25% of its assets under management come from Alpinvest, which faces short-term monetization challenges but benefits from long-term private asset growth. Trading at 13 times 2027 after-tax fee-related earnings, Carlyle's stock price implies a 19%-29% annualized total return, potentially reaching a fair value of $62-$76 by 2029.

Carlyle Group's market cap stands at $14.90 billion as of September 15, 2026, with a dividend yield of 3.35%, reflecting its income-generating potential. On Pluang, CG shares trade at $41.08, down 1.77% on the day as of 21:41 WIB. This positions Carlyle as a notable player in the financial sector, balancing current market valuation with its growth outlook.