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Traders see 74% chance Democrats will control the Senate after new polls boost their odds.

Market News
02 Nov 2026, 21:15 WIB
CNBC
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Neutral
Traders see 74% chance Democrats will control the Senate after new polls boost their odds.

Traders on the Kalshi platform now estimate a 74% probability that Democrats will win control of the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, the highest odds since the market opened. This shift follows a New York Times and Siena University poll showing Democrats leading in key battleground states, improving their path to a Senate majority. Notably, Democratic chances have risen in traditionally Republican states like Texas, Iowa, and Kansas. While these market odds reflect trader sentiment, they differ from traditional political polls and should be viewed as complementary indicators rather than definitive predictions.

Prediction market traders now see nearly a 75% chance of Democrats winning the Senate, providing a backdrop for market activity. For readers following US stocks on Pluang, here is the market snapshot as of Nov 03, 2026 01:31 WIB: out of 150 priced stocks, 104 rose and 46 fell. Notable movers include Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) up 6.06% at USD 8.92, Devon Energy Corp (DVN) down 5.93% at USD 49.06 with 83% buy order activity, and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) up 5.21% at USD 109.67.

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