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Bitcoin nears cycle lows but valuation signals and liquidity links remain weak for a clear bottom.

Market News
16 Aug 2026
AMBCrypto
View Source
Neutral
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Bitcoin's price has dropped to the lowest valuation band in the rainbow model, trading 66% below its long-term trend price, signaling a potential accumulation phase but not a confirmed bottom. The current cycle duration is close to previous bottoming periods, yet valuation metrics like MVRV suggest prices haven't fallen as deeply as before. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is decoupling from rising global liquidity (M2), weakening traditional cycle timing signals. This divergence means liquidity no longer strongly supports Bitcoin's price movements, making it harder to confirm a market bottom despite cycle timing alignment.

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