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Bitcoin may rally in Q4 if Q3's divergence from oil prices repeats amid rising macro uncertainty.

Market News
26 Oct 2026, 17:00 WIB
AMBCrypto
View Source
Bullish
Bitcoin may rally in Q4 if Q3's divergence from oil prices repeats amid rising macro uncertainty.

In Q3, Bitcoin rose 42% despite a 40% surge in oil prices, breaking typical market correlations and supporting its role as a macro hedge over gold. This divergence, driven by geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, could repeat in Q4 with upcoming U.S. mid-term elections and major earnings reports. Retail investors are increasing Bitcoin inflows, while whales are less active, indicating mixed market sentiment. However, Bitcoin and gold have both struggled this year, so if Bitcoin fails to outperform gold again, its macro-hedge narrative may weaken. The coming week will be crucial in testing whether Bitcoin can sustain its relative strength against macroeconomic pressures.

Bitcoin trades at Rp1.447.570.137 on Pluang as of Oct 26, 2026 21:21 WIB, showing a slight 0.28% decline in the past day. Despite the recent pullback, retail investors remain active with 78% of order activity on Pluang being buys, reflecting continued interest amid the ongoing debate about Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge. The platform's typical hold time of 112 days suggests many users are in for the medium term as the market watches for Bitcoin's ability to sustain its strength against gold and other macroeconomic factors in Q4.

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