A recent backtest using Bitcoin prices from 2018 to 2026 estimated that 47% of hypothetical 10x perpetual long positions would be liquidated during 180-day periods when Bitcoin closed above its starting price. Shorter periods showed lower liquidation rates: 18% for 60 days and 29% for 90 days. A simulation comparing a 10x perpetual long, a 30-day call option, and a 10x long with a put highlighted the risk of liquidation for leveraged positions versus limited loss for option buyers. The analysis suggests perpetual markets allow option sellers to adjust hedges but expose traders to liquidation risk if prices move adversely. On-chain options activity is estimated at $5 billion notional by September 2026, indicating growing market complexity.
Bitcoin backtest liquidation estimates provide context for cryptocurrency market activity on Pluang as of Nov 01, 2026 16:41 WIB. Of 50 major cryptocurrencies priced on Pluang, 34 rose and 15 fell today. Notable movers include BAL (Balancer) at Rp16.297 with an 11.14% increase and a typical hold time of 85 days, YFI (Yearn) at Rp37.248.904 up 10.63% with 100% buy order activity and a 94-day hold time, and COTI at Rp191 rising 9.69% with 98% buy order activity and a 122-day hold time.
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