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UBS cuts UPS earnings forecasts but keeps Buy rating, citing improving domestic margins as key driver.

Company Fundamentals
02 Oct 2026
Proactive Investors
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Neutral
UBS cuts UPS earnings forecasts but keeps Buy rating, citing improving domestic margins as key driver.

UBS has lowered its earnings per share forecasts for UPS for Q3 and Q4 2026, citing expected declines in domestic package volumes. Despite this, UBS maintains a Buy rating and a $124 price target, highlighting improving domestic margins as the main factor supporting UPS's earnings outlook. The broker expects a 3.6% year-over-year drop in domestic volumes but notes pricing remains strong, with positive effects from driver buyouts and pricing adjustments. Fuel price volatility is expected to be neutral overall, and a normal peak-season lift is anticipated despite economic concerns. UBS projects domestic margins to improve to 7% in Q3 and 10.6% in Q4, driving earnings growth and supporting the stock's valuation based on 2027 earnings estimates.

UPS earnings estimates are under review by UBS, with focus on domestic margins shaping the outlook. For readers following the Industrials sector, here is Pluang's market snapshot as of Oct 02, 2026 23:33 WIB: Of 93 priced US Industrials stocks, 65 rose and 28 fell today. Notable movers include Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) at USD 1,743.30 with a 3.44% increase and a typical hold time of 39 days, Upwork Inc (UPWK) at USD 8.06 down 3.36%, and EHang Holdings Ltd - ADR (EH) at USD 4.21 up 3.31% with a typical hold time of 46 days and 72% buy order activity on Pluang.

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