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Odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 drop to 42%, dimming XRP's key regulatory catalyst.

Market News
28 Jun 2026
Crypto news
View Source
Bearish
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Prediction markets now assign a 42% chance that the CLARITY Act, which would legally classify XRP as a digital commodity, will pass in 2026, down from about 73% earlier this year. This bill is crucial for XRP as it would remove regulatory uncertainty and potentially unlock billions in institutional ETF investments. The decline in odds is due to opposition from an anti-human trafficking coalition concerned about a provision shielding decentralized finance developers, resistance from the banking lobby over stablecoin rules, and a tight Senate vote margin requiring 60 votes. The legislative window is closing quickly, with a key deadline before the August recess. Passage would likely boost XRP's price toward several dollars by year-end, while failure or delay could cause XRP to lose its unique catalyst and move more in line with Bitcoin.

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