OpenAI proposed a 5% stake to the US government, but odds of a deal this year are low, traders say.

OpenAI reportedly offered the US government a 5% stake in the company, but traders on Kalshi see less than a 30% chance that such a deal will happen this year. The proposal was first shared with the Trump administration in 2025. Meanwhile, traders believe it's more likely the government will take stakes in quantum computing firms like Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, or semiconductor maker GlobalFoundries, supported by recent government grants and investments. Discussions about government stakes in private drone companies are also ongoing, with varying probabilities of deals occurring this year.