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US traders bet on $95 oil amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

Market News
02 Sep 2026
Proactive Investors
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Bullish
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US oil prices are rising amid escalating military tensions between the US and Iran, with prediction markets now assigning a 57% chance that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will reach $95 a barrel by the end of September. The conflict intensified after US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers and retaliatory missile attacks by Iran, raising fears of prolonged disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. Meanwhile, refinery strikes in Russia and a drawdown of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve have tightened supply conditions, contributing to price volatility. Market watchers remain cautious about extreme price spikes, with only a 33% chance of oil hitting $100 and a very low probability of reaching $150, as traders await clearer developments by the WTI futures settlement date on September 22.

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