Marriott rated Buy with $400 fair value, driven by strong fee revenue and membership growth despite modest room rate gains.

Marriott International is rated as a Buy with a fair value estimate of $400, reflecting its premium quality at a discount compared to Hilton. The company's earnings growth is fueled by strong fee revenue, expansion of its Bonvoy membership, income from co-branded credit cards, and aggressive share buybacks, even though revenue per available room (RevPAR) gains are modest. Net room growth, conversions, and a large development pipeline support sustained high-single-digit fee and EBITDA growth, with earnings per share expected to increase 11–14% annually through 2026–2027. Key risks include potential declines in RevPAR, challenges in executing the development pipeline, sustainability of credit card revenue, rising leverage, and valuation pressure from current high multiples.