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Traders expect July CPI inflation below consensus, signaling cooler price growth ahead.

Market News
10 Aug 2026
CNBC
View Source
Neutral
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Prediction market traders on Kalshi see less than a 55% chance that July's consumer price index (CPI) inflation will exceed 3.3% year-over-year, below the Dow Jones consensus of 3.4%. They also assign only a 15% chance that CPI will surpass 3.4%. For core inflation, which excludes food and energy, traders give a 47% chance it will be above 2.4% and just 11% chance it will exceed 2.5%, slightly below economists' expectations of 2.5%. This suggests traders anticipate a relatively tame inflation report, which is important for the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decisions in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official CPI data soon.

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