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Odds of US escorts through Strait of Hormuz drop to 18% amid USS Canberra blockade patrol

Market News
18 Apr 2026
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The likelihood of US naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 has decreased to 18%, down from 24% the previous day, as the USS Canberra is patrolling the Arabian Sea primarily for blockade enforcement rather than commercial ship protection. This shift in mission suggests a lower chance of escort operations, which would require a policy change. Investors are watching for official statements from the White House, Department of Defense, or US Navy that could quickly impact market sentiment and odds. Currently, buying into the escort bet offers a potential 5.56 times return if escorts occur before the deadline.

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