JP Morgan backs Prudential, expects positive update on China rules impact before H1 results

JP Morgan has placed Prudential PLC on positive catalyst watch ahead of its first-half 2026 results, expecting reassurance on the impact of China's Decree 837 on offshore life insurance sales in Hong Kong. The broker maintained an 'overweight' rating, noting Prudential shares trade at a discount despite pricing in a bearish scenario for new business from Mainland Chinese visitors. JP Morgan slightly cut earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to updated investment return models and changes in asset management stakes, but its forecasts remain above consensus. Prudential's upcoming management commentary on the decree's effect will be closely watched by investors.