Harley-Davidson's Q1 sales rise 8%, dealer inventory down 22%, signaling demand recovery and potential stock gains.

Harley-Davidson's stock is currently valued as if its profit margins will permanently collapse, but recent data suggests otherwise. In Q1, retail sales increased by 8% while dealer inventory dropped by 22%, indicating that demand may be stabilizing. Looking ahead, the 2027 reset—including reduced discounting, $150 million+ in cost cuts, new U.S.-built Revolution Max engines, and increased production at York—could boost Harley-Davidson's EBITDA to over $350 million. The analyst projects the stock price could reach $32 within 12-18 months and $48 in 2-3 years, with even higher potential if Harley successfully revitalizes dealer engagement and cultural demand for its motorcycles.