The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), designed to profit from rising interest rates by delivering twice the inverse daily return of long-term Treasuries, barely moved after the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike. Despite a correct macro call on rising rates, TBT's daily reset mechanism can erode gains when yields fluctuate rather than trend steadily higher, as seen in the week following the Fed's September 17 rate increase. This makes TBT suitable mainly for short-term traders with a clear exit plan rather than long-term investors or retirees seeking stable bond hedges. Market expectations suggest more hikes could come, but TBT's performance depends heavily on the yield path's consistency rather than just direction.
Following the recent Federal Reserve rate hike discussed in the article, the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) shows minimal movement, trading at USD 81.81 with a 1-day change of +0.01% as of September 23, 2026, 01:01 WIB on Pluang. The ETF's market cap stands at $46.93 billion, and typical holding time among Pluang investors is 81 days, with a majority of orders leaning towards selling at 60%. This data highlights the cautious stance of investors in long-term Treasuries during a period of interest rate uncertainty.
In 2023, bond investors have faced losses, with major bond ETFs like the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF down 4% and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF down nearly 7%. Despite this, investors have poured a record $625 billion into bond ETFs an...
The article discusses the current attractiveness of the TLT ETF, which tracks long-term government bonds, amid elevated 20-year yields around 5.3%. These yields appear high compared to Federal Reserve inflation and neutral rate projections, suggestin...
