Oil ETF DBO surges 108% YTD but faces risk as EIA forecasts WTI crude to drop below $75 by spring

The Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) has gained 108% year-to-date by using a roll-yield strategy that benefits from crude oil's backwardation, outperforming the United States Oil Fund (USO). However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that WTI crude oil prices will fall to around $73 by next spring, which could challenge DBO's ability to maintain gains. DBO's strategy involves selecting futures contracts with the best roll yield rather than just the front month, allowing it to harvest positive carry in backwardated markets. While this approach has worked well so far, a significant price drop as forecasted by the EIA could lead to losses that the roll yield cannot offset. Investors should consider DBO as a tactical, short-term oil exposure with some tax complexities and volatility, while those seeking steady income might prefer energy equity funds like XLE.

As of Sep 18, 2026 23:21 WIB, the Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) trades at USD 25.33, close to its 52-week high of USD 26.35, while the United States Oil Fund (USO) is priced at USD 155.45, nearer to its 52-week high of USD 161.86. On Pluang, DBO shows a 1-day change of +0.12% with 100% buy orders, contrasting with USO's +0.09% and 94% sell orders. This highlights a stronger buying interest in DBO despite USO's larger market cap and shorter typical hold time, reflecting different investor strategies in energy exposure.