Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, proposed gradually reducing its $80 billion exposure to long-term U.S. Treasuries starting in 2027. This move raises questions about the future value of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is highly sensitive to interest rate changes. While no immediate sell-off is expected, the shift signals potential structural changes in long Treasury yields. Investors may consider shorter-duration Treasury ETFs as alternatives to avoid the high price risk associated with TLT's long duration.
The recent selloff in the bond market, especially in short-term bonds, is considered excessive given limited term premium and expectations of three 25 basis point rate hikes by 2027. Despite higher nominal growth, persistent inflation, and the Fed's ...
In a record-setting auction on October 7, 2026, foreign buyers (indirect bidders) purchased 80.34% of $39 billion in 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, while primary dealers took only 2.54%, the lowest ever. The notes cleared at a yield of 5.300%, near a 2...
Options trading in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged with heavy call buying, signaling some traders expect a bottom in the recent U.S. Treasury bond sell-off. A notable buyer purchased large volumes of calls expiring in October, ant...
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Most Fed officials now expect at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026, influenced by strong AI-driv...
Market odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October fell from 51% to 19% within a week, driven by weaker-than-expected September jobs data showing slower payroll growth and a slight rise in unemployment. Fed officials indicated no urgent need for ...
