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Shopify's POS business could boost its growth and profits significantly over the next decade, says UBS.

Market News
29 May 2026
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UBS analysts highlight Shopify's point-of-sale (POS) business as a key growth driver, currently making up 12% of its gross merchandise volume (GMV) and potentially reaching 20% by 2035. The in-store POS segment is seen as underappreciated, with a large addressable market since physical retail volumes exceed e-commerce globally. UBS projects the POS business could add 3-5 percentage points to Shopify's 10-year GMV growth rate and 1-2 percentage points to its gross profit growth. Shopify's current US in-store POS market share is small but expected to grow, especially among mid-market and enterprise merchants, supported by recent deployments like Estée Lauder brands.

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