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Alamos Gold cuts 2026 guidance by 12%, but long-term growth remains strong with $47 target.

Analyst Insights
09 Sep 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Neutral
Alamos Gold cuts 2026 guidance by 12%, but long-term growth remains strong with $47 target.

Alamos Gold (AGI) lowered its 2026 production guidance by 12%, causing a market selloff triggered by a seismic event at the Young-Davidson mine. However, this mine is not crucial to AGI's long-term growth plan, which targets nearly 1 million ounces production by 2030 and aims to reduce all-in sustaining costs to $1,200–1,300 per ounce. Key growth catalysts include the commissioning of Island Gold shaft in early 2027, ramp-up of PDA mid-2027, mill expansion in early 2028, and Lynn Lake startup in the first half of 2029. The company’s growth plan is fully funded, with capital expenditures peaking in 2026, supporting a $47 price target with a 25% upside over 2.25 years based on 2028 EBITDA and free cash flow yield.

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