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Implied volatilities drop as inflation data fuels hopes Fed rate hikes are over.

Market News
19 Aug 2026
Seeking Alpha
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Neutral
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Cross-asset implied volatilities have fallen following favorable inflation data showing soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) and flat Producer Price Index (PPI), which has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates. Despite a pullback in 30-year Treasury yields to levels near 10-year highs, interest rate volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, continues to decline, now at a 36th percentile low compared to 89th percentile highs two weeks ago. The VIX Index also dropped to a year-to-date low of 14.25, driven by a decrease in fixed-strike volatilities across the curve. This suggests a calmer market outlook as investors anticipate no further aggressive rate hikes from the Fed.

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