Valero Energy rated Buy, poised for strong profits amid US refining capacity deficit and global energy disruptions.

Valero Energy is rated a Buy due to ongoing global energy disruptions and a structural deficit in US refining capacity. The company is expected to benefit from sustained high crack spreads, potentially generating windfall profits and EBITDA exceeding $10 billion through 2028. At current stock prices, Valero could offer investors a 14% yield through dividends and share buybacks, with a price target of $280 to achieve a 10% yield. Risks include potential global demand decline, new US refining capacity, and windfall profit taxes, but near-term capital returns remain attractive.