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MSTR can survive a 55% Bitcoin crash but common shareholders face severe losses in BTC exposure.

Analyst Insights
26 Jun 2026
Blockonomi
View Source
Bearish
pluang ai news

Analyst Adam Livingston's three-year stress test of MicroStrategy (MSTR) shows the company can survive a 55% Bitcoin price crash to $26,611 despite capital markets closing and forced BTC sales to service debt. The model starts with MSTR holding 847,363 BTC and $1.4 billion cash, but as BTC price falls, senior debt claims balloon, severely compressing common shareholders' Bitcoin exposure per share. Cash runs out by month nine, forcing the sale of 115,727 BTC, yet MSTR still retains 731,636 BTC by year three, with the market NAV recovering to 1.40x. The main risk is a prolonged reduction in Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders, not immediate bankruptcy.

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