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CF Industries stock jumps 64% YTD on nitrogen supply shock and strong demand outlook

Analyst Insights
26 Mar 2026
24/7 Wall Street
View Source
Bullish
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CF Industries Holdings has surged 64.32% year-to-date, driven by a supply shock in nitrogen fertilizers due to Middle East disruptions and strong global demand. UBS raised its price target to $140, citing potential for sustained high nitrogen prices and margin expansion. Key factors include ongoing geopolitical tensions limiting supply, robust U.S. and Indian fertilizer demand, and CF's strategic clean energy investments. Risks remain around natural gas costs and potential geopolitical easing, but CF's strong cash flow and buyback program support its growth potential.

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