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Inflation shock from Middle East tensions may push Fed rates above 5%, risking recession and market drop.

Market News
29 May 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Bearish
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An inflationary shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28 has led to a sharp rise in energy costs. This situation may force the Federal Reserve to raise the Federal Funds rate above 5%, potentially inverting the yield curve. According to Taylor Rule estimates, the rate should be between 4.6% and 6.08%, much higher than current levels. This scenario points to a major downturn for the S&P 500, with an inflation shock followed by a recession and a possible bubble burst in the market.

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