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Markets see rising odds of Fed rate hike by year-end, despite incoming Chair Warsh's dovish stance.

Market News
18 May 2026
CNBC
View Source
Neutral
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Market expectations are shifting towards a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike by the end of the year, with a 42% chance priced in, despite incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's dovish signals about lowering rates. Inflation pressures, partly driven by the Iran war, have caused Treasury yields to surge, prompting concerns that the Fed must tighten policy sooner to maintain control over borrowing costs and satisfy investor demands, known as the "Bond Vigilantes." Ed Yardeni, a market veteran, suggests a rate hike as early as July to calm the bond market and potentially lower real-world borrowing costs, which could benefit mortgage rates and corporate financing. This view contrasts with the current market consensus, which sees only a 4.2% chance of a July hike.

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